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Whither
the Economy?
Or,
is the economy withering?
We
have economists on all sides of the question; from those who say we're
only in a slump, such as the popular TV economist Louis Rukyser, to the
renowned international economist, Lakshman Achupham, who says we are in a
worldwide recession. You can take your choice, which depends on whether
you are part of the new unemployed (recession) or have a secure financial
position. So far, waterfront workers are relatively well off. We hope it
stays that way. But, security being absent from capitalist economies,
there is reason to watch our cards. International trade suffers from
international financial ups and downs, maybe later on, but inevitably.
Of course, capitalist economic cycles are nothing new. We've had
many since the beginning of the industrial revolution and capitalism
beginning in the late 17th century. The historic '29 crash is a classic
example of what an international depression can mean in terms of human
suffering.
What is not dealt with generally is the true meaning of the
Japanese recession. It has been going on for ten years following the
Japanese economic miracle of the '80s. At that time some observers
predicted that Japan would surpass the United States economy. Such pipe
dreams result from the same exuberant optimism Alan Greenspan accused
stock investors of being in the '90s. Nor do they mention that Japan has
reduced its interest rate to less than one percent and still shows little
sign of recovery; just as the Fed's reductions have failed to stall U.S.
slide into recession.
The European economy is slowing to the point of negative growth.
For the first time since WWII, Germany, the powerhouse of European economy
is showing negative growth. France Italy are following suit. The
ingredients of a worldwide recession are in place. The only exception to
recession is the Chinese economy, which continues to post 8 percent annual
growth. While tending toward capitalism, China hasn't reached the stage of
capitalist boom and bust.
The capitalist rule is
cycle up and cycle down. In the up cycle the poor benefit the least, if
any. In the down cycle the poor suffer the most.
What will it be like as we continue on the Ferris wheel ride? The
RUSTY HOOK editors are not prophets, but certain indications point to
prolonged reductions in living standards on a world scale. Low wage
service wages are replacing high wage manufacturing jobs. Most economists
now agree the manufacturing sector; the heavy actor in the U.S. economy is
in recession. The people cut off welfare by the five-year limit have no
recourse except private charity that is already strained beyond capacity.
So, you can take your choice. What it comes to is lowering living
standards to slump level, recession level, or, perish the thought,
depression level. The recovery from the present economic uneasiness will
come sometime, this year, next year, sometime according to which economist
you listen to. Some will even say the recovery will be stow and will never
again see the exuberant stock market of the '90s.
You pays your money and
takes your choice.
An
apt addition to the above is a quote from Sean Penn appearing in the
Seattle P. I., 8/25/01: SEAN
PENN praised anti-globalization protesters and slammed the quality of
Hollywood filmmaking in scathing comments before a film festival screening
of his new movie, "The Pledge". He dismissed President Bush as a
"nowhere man" on Thursday and lauded protesters at a recent
global meeting for caring about something beyond themselves. “There's a
lot of stuff going on around the world and in the US as well, like the
protests in Genoa and Seattle, and young people are putting themselves on
the line,“ Penn told reporters at the Edinburgh International Film
festival, referring to demonstrations at this summer's G8 meeting in Italy and the 1999 World Trade Organization
conference in Seattle.
I
don't know if people
value the thought of revolution any more.... I think it would be an enormously patriotic
movement to invest in the possibility of revolution.”
Amen
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